Food prices in Europe are rising at a moderate pace, but some products that experienced sharp price increases in previous years are now showing signs of decline. Nevertheless, food inflation in 2025 may remain above general inflation, indicating limited prospects for increased food demand in the EU, according to the European Commission’s report Short-Term Outlook for EU Agricultural Markets – Summer 2025.
Geopolitical instability, climate challenges, and changes in trade policies of major global players such as the United States and China pose threats to the stability of both global and European markets.
There has been an increase in cereal production, a recovery in olive oil production, and stable milk deliveries.
Olive oil prices in the EU dropped significantly by June 2025 as a result of a 37% production recovery.
Cereal production in the EU is expected to rise by 4.1% in the 2025/26 season, which will improve the trade balance – exports are forecast to increase by 26%, while imports could decline by 19%.
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Oilseed production in the EU could grow by 12%, driven by higher yields of rapeseed and sunflower. In the 2024/25 season, white sugar production in the EU increased by 6.5% due to expanded cultivation areas. However, a potential 8% decline in production in 2025/26 could lead to increased imports.
Due to unfavorable weather conditions, apple production in 2024/25 could drop by 4%, keeping prices high, while peach and nectarine production might fall by 5.8%, accompanied by record-high imports. In contrast, climatic conditions are favorable for orange production, which could increase by 4.6% compared to the record-low previous season, with most of the yield intended for processing.
Industrial electricity and gas price disparities between the EU and its trading partners remain higher than before 2022, and, combined with a strengthening euro against the US dollar, could negatively impact the competitiveness of EU agri-food products and the EU trade balance. Natural gas remains nearly three times more expensive than in the US, although some progress was made in 2024 compared to the previous year.
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