The projections for the development of solar energy discussed throughout the year have been confirmed in the latest SolarPower Europe report – EU Solar Market Outlook 2025–2030. After ten years of strong solar energy growth, 2025 marks the first slowdown. Estimates show that 65.1 GW of new solar capacity will be installed by the end of the year, which represents a 0.7 percent decrease compared to 2024.
The reasons for the slowdown differ between rooftop systems and large ground-mounted installations. In the case of rooftop installations, which include households and companies, the decline is primarily related to the diminishing impact of the energy crisis. Although gas and electricity prices remain high, the urgency to invest in solar systems is no longer the same, and it has further weakened due to the withdrawal of certain support programs in several key countries.
On the other hand, large (utility-scale) installations remain the main driver of solar energy growth in the European Union — in 2025, they surpassed 50 percent of all new installations for the first time. Nevertheless, concerns persist, as the development of this segment is constrained by an overloaded grid, increasingly frequent negative electricity prices, and regulatory uncertainty.
Although the growth of rooftop installations has slowed, cumulatively — when looking at all years to date — this segment still dominates with a 61 percent share, while large installations account for 39 percent of the EU’s total installed solar capacity.
Record Solar Energy Production in 2025
Still, the previous data should not be discouraging. According to the report, solar energy will provide a record more than 13 percent of electricity in the European Union in 2025. Compared to 2021, its share has doubled. Another important piece of information is that solar energy became the largest single source of electricity generation in the EU in June 2025, supplying 22 percent of total production.
By September 2025, this energy source had produced more electricity than during the entire year of 2024, reaching 312 TWh in just nine months.
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Reaching the 2030 Target
The slowdown in solar energy development is expected to continue through 2026 and 2027, but growth is anticipated to return toward the end of the decade. The medium scenario indicates that after the next two years, solar energy will return to a growth zone, although the growth rate will remain low and in the single digits.
When both challenges and encouraging indicators are taken into account, the cumulative outlook suggests that current conditions are not sufficient for the EU to reach its target of 750 GW of solar energy by 2030. The medium scenario projects a total capacity of 718 GW by then — higher than the low scenario (664 GW), but still below the target. Only the high scenario foresees the target being met, with 810 GW, demonstrating that the goal is achievable but requires more favorable conditions.
In the coming years, electricity demand is expected to rise due to the growth of electric vehicles, heat pumps, industry, and data centers. To meet these needs, further development is required in electrification, battery storage, and system flexibility. Additionally, stable policies and improved land-use processes will be essential.
Most new solar capacity — as much as 80 percent — is expected to be installed between 2026 and 2030 in just ten EU member states. The top three among them — Germany, Italy, and Spain — will account for nearly half of all installations in the European Union.
The overarching message is that broader participation of more member states is necessary to ensure a more stable and balanced development of solar energy across the EU.
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