Minerals are essential components of clean energy technologies—from wind turbines and power grids to electric vehicles. As the energy transition accelerates, demand for these minerals is growing at an extraordinary pace. A new report, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), presents the latest data and analysis on supply, demand, investment, and other key aspects.
The report focuses on minerals of critical importance, such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. The IEA warns that the growing concentration of production in the hands of a few countries, combined with the expansion of export restrictions, significantly increases the risk of severe disruptions in the supply chains of these strategic resources.
Demand for lithium rose by nearly 30 percent in 2024, far exceeding the average annual growth of 10 percent seen in the 2010s. However, strong supply growth—driven by China, Indonesia, and certain African regions—has put downward pressure on prices, especially for battery metals. Since 2020, the growth in the supply of these metals has been twice as fast as it was at the end of the previous decade.
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“When examining the supply-demand balance over the next decade, the report also highlights significant risks. Investment in the critical minerals sector is losing momentum: in 2024, it grew by only 5 percent, compared to 14 percent in 2023. Exploration activity stagnated throughout 2024, and early-stage capital for new projects shows signs of slowing,” the report states.
The report places particular emphasis on the major risks facing the copper market. As countries expand their power grids, copper demand is expected to surge. However, current projects suggest that by 2035 there could be a supply shortfall of up to 30 percent.
Supply security is increasingly threatened by export restrictions. Of all the minerals covered in the report, 55 percent are subject to some form of export control. These restrictions now extend beyond raw and refined materials to include processing technologies as well.
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